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03/15/2009 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sean Avery scored a pair of power-play goals to lift the New York Rangers to a 4-1 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers at Madison Square Garden.
Nik Antropov also scored on the power play and Fredrik Sjostrom tacked on a third-period goal for the Rangers, who gained a split of the home-and-home set after dropping a 4-2 decision on Saturday in Philadelphia. New York, which started the day tied with Florida for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, has won five of its last seven.
Henrik Lundqvist made 24 saves in the victory, the third straight on home ice for the Rangers.
Simon Gagne scored the lone goal for Philadelphia, which had won three of its previous four entering the contest. Antero Niittymaki, making the start in place of Martin Biron, turned aside 35 shots in defeat. Biron stopped 39 shots on Saturday and had started the Flyers' last four games.
The power play was the difference in this one. The Rangers had been 1-for-15 with the extra skater in three previous games against the Flyers this season, but converted 3-of-9 chances on Sunday. Philadelphia was just 1-for-6.
New York had three power-play chances in the first period and failed to convert on the first two before finally cashing in on the third with two minutes remaining the stanza.
Derek Morris controlled the puck at the right point, skated in a few strides and fired a hard pass toward the front of the net for Avery, who deflected a shot over Niittymaki's shoulder for his sixth goal of the season and third since being reacquired by the Rangers.
The Flyers were unable to score on their only power play of the first period. They also blew a 2-on-1 and saw a shot ring off the post, then tied it on a power play early in the second.
In much the same fashion as the Ranger goal, Mike Richards took a shot from the right point and Gagne was able to deflect it home from the slot for his 27th goal at the 4:32 mark.
A high-sticking call against Philadelphia's Danny Briere just over two minutes later led to another Ranger power-play goal. Chris Drury won an offensive-zone faceoff back to Michal Rozsival, who got the puck to Antropov along the right boards. The former Toronto Maple Leaf skated into the circle and snapped a shot past a screened Niittymaki for his 24th goal and third since being acquired by New York at the trade deadline.
The Rangers nearly opened a two-goal margin in the final minute of the second, but Rozsival directed a shot wide on a 2-on-1 with Ryan Callahan.
Braydon Coburn, though, took a major penalty just a few seconds before the end of the stanza, giving the Rangers an extended power play to start the third.
Avery made the Flyers pay again just 2:45 into the period. Markus Naslund came around the net and tried to center the puck to Scott Gomez, but it deflected off the skate of a Flyer in front of the crease and Avery was there to knock it into the net for a 3-1 lead.
Philadelphia did not muster a shot in the third period until just over 11 1/2 minutes remained, but Lundqvist turned aside Jeff Carter's point-blank chance from the slot.
The Rangers then extended their lead to three with 9:49 remaining. Sjostrom, after taking a Flyer down behind the Philadelphia net without a call, was able to corral the puck and score on a wraparound.
Lundqvist made the lead stand up as the Rangers killed off a pair of penalties late in the third, including 31 seconds of a two-man Philadelphia advantage.
Game Notes
The Rangers last tallied three power-play goals in a game on November 6 against Tampa Bay...Avery and Antropov also scored for the Rangers in Saturday's game. Avery has a three-game goal streak...Richards extended his point streak to seven games, as did Gagne...The Flyers opened a four-game road trip that will also take them to Detroit, Buffalo and Pittsburgh...The Rangers will visit Montreal for their next game on Tuesday.
<< Essien on target for Chelsea
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Essien's good form continued on
Sunday as he scored the lone goal in Chelsea's 1-0 win over Manchester City at
Stamford Bridge.
The win allows Chelsea to move back into second place, four p
<< Pacers' Granger returns from foot injury
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Indiana Pacers All-Star forward Danny Granger
returned for Sunday's matchup against the Toronto Raptors after missing the
last 11 games with a partially torn tendon in the sole of his right foot.
Granger,
<< Indians reassign Ohka
Goodyear, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians have reassigned pitcher
Tomo Ohka to minor league camp.
Ohka signed a minor league contract with the Tribe in December.
The veteran right-hander hasn't pitched in the majors since 200
<< Fer's header carries Feyenoord to win over PSV
Rotterdam, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Leroy Fer's header in the 73rd
minute was enough to propel Feyenoord to a 1-0 win over PSV Eindhoven at De
Kuip Stadion on Sunday.
The win extends Feyenoord's unbeaten streak to four games
Duke knocks off FSU, takes home another ACC crown >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jon Scheyer scored a game-high 29 points as
ninth-ranked Duke posted a 79-69 victory over 22nd-ranked Florida State in the
ACC Tournament final at the Georgia Dome.
Gerald Henderson added 27 points and Ky
Johnson leads Hawks in rout of Blazers >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Johnson led all scorers with 35 points and
added seven rebounds and six assists as the Atlanta Hawks hammered the
Portland Trail Blazers, 98-80, at Philips Arena.
Josh Smith turned in a solid pe
Marshall helps Sixers cool off Heat >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seldom-used Donyell Marshall scored
all 10 of his points in the fourth quarter, as the Philadelphia 76ers picked
up an 85-77 victory over the Miami Heat.
Andre Iguodala recorded a game-high 21
Grizzlies surprise Pistons >>
Auburn Hills, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Conley poured in a game-high 20
points and Darko Milicic added 12 points with 11 rebounds off the bench, as
Memphis snuck past Detroit, 89-84, at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
Rudy Gay added
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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