Big Ten showdown pits Badgers against Gophers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A couple of teams jockeying for position in the ultra-competitive Big Ten Conference meet in Minneapolis tonight, as another chapter of the legendary "Border War" is added when the Minnesota Golden Gophers play host to the 21st-ranked Wisconsin Badgers.

At present, Minnesota owns a 100-89 advantage in the all-time series, and the Gophers are 67-30 against the Badgers in Minneapolis. The last meeting between the two took place in Madison on December 28, 2010, and Wisconsin snapped a three-game losing streak against Minnesota by claiming a 68-60 victory.

Wisconsin is an impressive 18-6 on the season, and the team has won seven of its 11 conference bouts thus far. The Badgers recently had a six-game win streak snapped with a 58-52 loss at home to Ohio State last Saturday, dropping the team's home record to 11-4. UW has won its last three road games, and is 5-2 on enemy turf this season.

Minnesota is enjoying a successful campaign of its own, logging a 17-7 record, which includes a 12-2 ledger at home. Unfortunately, the Golden Gophers have gone just 5-6 in conference, although they've played better in recent weeks, winning two of their last three and five of their last seven. A 69-61 victory at Nebraska last Sunday was the team's most recent, and UM will play five of its remaining seven games of the regular season at home.

Wisconsin continues to play the kind of stifling defense only it can, as the Badgers are still the nation's top team in terms of points allowed (49.8 ppg). Foes are shooting just 36.5 percent from the field, which includes a dismal 26.2 percent showing from three-point range, and UW owns favorable margins in both rebounding (+3.2) and turnovers (+2.3) as well. Jordan Taylor (14.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.4 apg) is one of three players currently averaging double digits in the scoring column for coach Bo Ryan's club, which puts up 64.1 ppg on the strength of its 42.9 percent shooting from the floor, and 35.6 percent from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, while Taylor's scoring average rises to 16.1 ppg against conference opponents, the team's dips to 59.3 ppg while its average yield rises to 55.9 ppg. Ryan Evans scored 14 points to lead four players in double figures, but the Badgers shot just 40 percent from the floor in what turned out to be a six-point loss to Ohio State last weekend. Both teams struggled from long range, with UW going just 5-of-27 (.185) and OSU a paltry 1-of-7 (.143). The Buckeyes used a 13-3 edge in points from the foul line, as well as a 15-9 advantage in second-chance points to claim the victory.

The loss of star forward Trevor Mbakwe after only seven games should have spelled disaster for Minnesota, but coach Tubby Smith rallied his troops and the team has gone on to be a thorn in the side of many an opponent this year. At present, the Gophers have just a pair of 10 ppg scorers in Rodney Williams and Julian Welch, but the team as a whole is generating 69.2 ppg on 47.5 percent field goal efficiency and 36.0 percent from beyond the arc. The team's defensive effort holds the opposition to 63.3 ppg, with those foes shooting just 41.4 percent from the floor and 33.9 percent from three-point land. Since the start of Big Ten play, UM is netting nearly the same number of points as it permits (67.7 ppg to 67.4 ppg). Chip Armelin came off the bench to score 15 points to lead Minnesota to victory in its recent bout with Nebraska, while Welch was the only starter to reach double figures as he drained all three of his three-point tries en route to 10 points. As a team, the Gophers connected on 54.0 percent of their total shots, nailing 7-of-17 three-point attempts along the way, and they won the rebounding battle, 31-24, while holding the Cornhuskers to 43.8 percent field goal efficiency.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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