Harvick's season resurgence continues with Daytona win

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/05/2010 - Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - What a difference a year has made for Kevin Harvick.

One year ago, Harvick was far from making the championship Chase, as he sat 26th in points. Now, he's atop the standings with two wins so far this season under his belt, including an impressive victory in Saturday's 400-mile race at Daytona.

Harvick currently holds a 180-point lead over Jeff Gordon, and he's scored 13 top-10 finishes in 18 races this season.

How has he been able to turn things around? Give credit to team owner Richard Childress.

"Richard pulled the trigger on a lot of different things, whether it was reorganizing people or whether it was getting us the funds to build new cars," Harvick said. "He stepped out on a huge limb to spend the money to start over with basically four teams halfway through [last] year, and it's paying off now for us."

Signs of a turnaround for Harvick's team, as well as the teams of Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer at Richard Childress Racing, began to materialize at the tail end of the 2009 season. And the momentum hasn't lost its steam.

Burton sits eighth in points, while Bowyer holds the 14th spot, just 49 points behind 12th-place Carl Edwards. With eight races remaining until the Chase, both drivers will scramble to qualify for the playoffs, which begin on September 19 at New Hampshire.

Barring any unforeseen incident, Harvick will make the Chase, but where he will be seeded depends on his number of wins during the 26-race regular season.

"That's all we have talked about for the last two or three weeks, what do we have to do to win more races before the Chase starts," he said.

Whatever it will take for them to win, Harvick and crew chief Gil Martin said they're willing to do it.

"Obviously we're in a fortunate position to be where we are right now in the points lead," Martin said. "As far as rolling the dice, we're going to try to do that as much as possible, because we need to get to victory lane as much as we can, because basically that's what Richard pays us to do.

"We've got to get there, but at the same token, we've got to get there smart and make sure that we're not only consistent but we have some speed. Luckily, we're going to be able to take some chances possibly that we haven't been able to take in the past."

The driver with the most wins after the September 11 race at Richmond will enter the Chase as the first seed. Each of the 12 drivers who make the playoffs -- the final 10 races of the season -- will have their point totals adjusted to 5,000, plus 10 bonus points tacked on for each one of his wins this season. Right now, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have the most victories this season with five each.

Harvick's victories this season have come at restrictor plate tracks. He snapped a 115-race winless streak in April at Talladega. This past weekend, Harvick survived a rash of accidents, including "the big one" that involved 19 drivers, and then held off Kasey Kahne and Gordon in a two-lap overtime finish to win at Daytona.

"Kevin is becoming one of these guys who wins the restrictor plate races," Childress said. "He's kind of like Dale [Earnhardt] Sr. You knew he was going to be a factor in it."

Harvick easily could have begun the 2010 season with wins in the first two races -- Daytona and California. He held the lead for the final restart in the Daytona 500, but eventual race winner Jamie McMurray got a bump from Greg Biffle to move in front with less than two laps to go. Then at California, Harvick lost a spirited battle with Johnson for the win after brushing the wall in the final laps.

In May, Harvick signed a multi-year contract extension with RCR. Harvick had considered leaving RCR after finishing a disappointing 19th in points in '09. His contract with RCR was set to expire at the end of this year, and he was considered the top free agent for next season.

Harvick has driven the No.29 car for RCR in Cup since replacing Dale Earnhardt after Earnhardt's fatal crash in the 2001 Daytona 500.

With the contract distraction out of the way, Harvick and Childress are focused on winning the championship. But they'll have to figure a way to dethrone Johnson, who is the four-time defending series title-holder.

"To race with [Johnson's team] every week and to get to the level to where they've been, they're not looking for home runs every week, they're looking to refine their product every week," Harvick said. "I think that's what we've done a really good job throughout the whole company this year is we've taken a product, refined it, and by the time we get to the Chase, hopefully it will be."

Hamlin has been considered Johnson's biggest threat for the championship since the start of this year. But with the season now at its midpoint, it's time to add Harvick into the category of favorites to win the title.

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NFL Football Sports Betting

Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.

New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.

His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.

HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.

The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.

RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.

First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.

The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.

These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.

New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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