Power-swinging Marlins resume series with Padres

Baseball Betting Lines

07/31/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even a trip to spacious Petco Park couldn't derail the Marlins' power train. Florida seeks a sixth straight victory at the Padres' home park as it continues a three-game set tonight with San Diego.

The Marlins got home runs from Gaby Sanchez and Cody Ross in last night's 4-2 victory, giving them 10 long balls in their last five games. Hanley Ramirez and Logan Morrison also drove in a run each as Florida has now won two straight, four of six and 10 of its last 14 overall.

"They're making adjustments," Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez said of the recent homer surge. "They are staying back more. They're not swinging at bad pitches. I think that's the key. They are not swinging at bad pitches. Their strike zone is smaller. They're getting ahead more in the count."

Chris Volstad benefited from the home runs, yielding two runs over five-plus innings to get his first victory since June 13.

Florida also spoiled the debut of Miguel Tejada, who went 0-for-3 with a walk in his first game with the Padres since being acquired from Baltimore on Thursday.

"I don't want to put pressure on myself," Tejada said. "I just want to play the same game I've always played. I do whatever I can do to help the team."

Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley had an RBI apiece for the Padres, who had won five of six coming in and saw their lead over the second-place Giants fall to 2 1/2 games in the National League West.

Yorvit Torrealba went 2-for-3 to extend his hitting streak to 13 games and Wade LeBlanc allowed four runs on five hits in a 6 1/3-inning start to suffer the loss.

San Diego had a five-game series winning streak halted, a run that included a three-game sweep in Florida from June 25-27. The Padres have now lost five in a row at home to the Marlins, who haven't lost at Petco Park since July 8, 2008.

The Marlins hope to continue their power run tonight and help Ricky Nolasco earn a third straight winning start.

The right-hander is coming off Monday's win over the Giants as he pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed a run on four hits with a walk and seven strikeouts. He has a 3.40 earned run average in his last seven starts with 57 strikeouts, and is 11-7 with a 4.35 ERA on the season.

Nolasco is an excellent 7-2 with a 3.93 in 11 road starts this season. The 27- year-old is also 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA lifetime versus San Diego.

Kevin Correia has won back-to-back starts after going 0-2 in his previous seven and will look to improve on his 7-6 mark and 5.09 ERA this season.

The 29-year-old righty bested Pittsburgh last Friday, yielding three runs -- two earned -- on six hits and three walks over six innings.

Correia recorded a win over the Marlins on April 28 even though he gave up four runs in five innings of work. He is 2-2 versus them lifetime in 12 games (five starts) with a 6.94 ERA.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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