Rebels take on Wildcats in pivotal SEC battle

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/02/2010 - Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 25th-ranked Ole Miss Rebels have the unenviable task of battling the now fourth-ranked Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington this evening in a top-25 SEC tussle.

Ole Miss carried a three-game win streak into Sunday's home clash with Arkansas and was clearly favored in that affair. Unfortunately, the result was an 80-73 loss to the Hogs, dropping the Rebels to 16-5 overall and 4-3 in conference.

As for Kentucky, it won the first 19 games of this season before finally falling to South Carolina last week. Fortunately, the Wildcats were able to get back on track on Saturday with an 85-72 decision over Vanderbilt. There is plenty of reason to be optimistic about tonight's game, as they enter with a 13-0 home record.

Kentucky owns a commanding 96-13 series edge over Ole Miss, and the teams split a pair of meetings a year ago.

Ole Miss is a well-balanced offensive team that has five double-digit scorers in the fold, and the contributions off all those players have led to 80.9 ppg, a strong output for the team. Chris Warren is tops with 16.7 ppg, and he has handed out 72 assists. Terrico White checks in with 15.0 ppg, and Eniel Polynice provides 10.6 ppg and 89 assists. Murphy Holloway (10.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Zach Graham (10.0 ppg) round out the group for the Rebels, who are holding opponents to 69.3 ppg on 40.3 percent shooting. On Sunday, Ole Miss connected on a mere 38.2 percent of its field goal attempts and was outscored 23-9 from the foul line. Those negatives overshadowed a 45-32 rebounding advantage. Holloway tallied 19 points off the bench, and Warren contributed 17. As for Polynice, he finished with 15 points and six assists.

Sure, Kentucky freshman John Wall has been the most highly-regarded player in the nation so far this season, but fellow rookie DeMarcus Cousins is proving that he is just as worthy of praise. Cousins racked up 21 points and 10 rebounds for the Wildcats against Vanderbilt on Saturday, and he seems to get better every time he takes the floor. Darnell Dodson scored 16 points against Vandy, while Wall posted 13 points and nine assists. Eric Bledsoe scored 13 points as well, and Patrick Patterson rounded out a balanced attack with 12 points before fouling out. Kentucky earned a dominant 41-22 rebounding advantage and benefited from 25 points from the foul line. Wall is averaging 16.9 ppg to go with 135 assists and 40 steals, while Cousins provides 16.2 ppg and 9.7 rpg. As for Patterson, a reliable veteran, he checks in with 15.2 ppg and 7.7 rpg. The 'Cats are generating 82.2 ppg while surrendering just 66.0 ppg on 38.2 percent shooting by opponents.

Wwwasurebet NCAA Basketball Betting News

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.